Bologna 4-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Sassuolo encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bologna and Sassuolo meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Current Form

Bologna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bologna at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bologna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sassuolo have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sassuolo away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Bologna's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sassuolo's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Bologna, 1 for Sassuolo and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Bologna 1–1 Sassuolo — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bologna — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).

Sassuolo — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 59% versus Sassuolo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Sassuolo 58%). Note also that Sassuolo surrender HT leads in 58% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.76 xG and Sassuolo 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.003 / defence 0.720 | Sassuolo attack 0.954 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.081. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Bologna have a tight defence (rating 0.720), which is pulling Sassuolo's projected output down. Data: built from Bologna's last 59 games and Sassuolo's last 59.

Result probabilities: Bologna 60% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 14%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.66 | Draw 3.90 | Sassuolo 7.11. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (60%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bologna 30% (last 10 home games) | Sassuolo 70% (last 10 away games).

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