Bologna 4-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Sassuolo meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Bologna's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sassuolo's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 59% versus Sassuolo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Sassuolo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.76 xG and Sassuolo 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.003 / defence 0.720 | Sassuolo attack 0.954 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.081. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bologna's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Bologna games / 59 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 60% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 14%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Sassuolo 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 30% | Sassuolo 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 60% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Bologna 1.76 / Sassuolo 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.003 / def 0.720 | Sassuolo attack 0.954 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Bologna (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sassuolo xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Sassuolo kick off?
Bologna vs Sassuolo kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Bologna 4 - 2 Sassuolo.
Where is Bologna vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Sassuolo part of?
Bologna vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 60% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bologna and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
Record (5 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 2 | Sassuolo 1W.
What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bologna's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.95x) against Bologna's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.90
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.50
0.74
Sassuolo xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
41.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Bologna and 0.74 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 22W 21D 16L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo's form line: 17W 13D 29L from 59 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Bologna against 1.08 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (14W 11D 4L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 6W 7D 16L from 29 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.24 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 22W 21D 16L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 17W 13D 29L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Sassuolo away?
Bologna's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.83 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 0-3 on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
1
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Sassuolo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Sassuolo?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 45%, Sassuolo 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Bologna) and 66% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Sassuolo in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Bologna's recent matches and 59% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Bologna's recent games and 66% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Sassuolo 4-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.76 xG and Sassuolo 0.74 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sassuolo outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.00 / defence 0.72 against Sassuolo attack 0.95 / defence 1.26, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 60% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 14%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Sassuolo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.47 PPG, Sassuolo 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.