Monza 1-0 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Monza at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Monza welcome Sassuolo to U-Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monza have posted 3W 4D 3L at U-Power Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Monza) versus 0.80 (Sassuolo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Monza, 0 for Sassuolo and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Monza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 47% versus Sassuolo 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 41% | Sassuolo 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.62 xG and Sassuolo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.882 / defence 1.162 | Sassuolo attack 1.042 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.105. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Monza games / 58 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 43% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 31%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Sassuolo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Monza 50% | Sassuolo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 43% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Monza 1.62 / Sassuolo 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.882 / def 1.162 | Sassuolo attack 1.042 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Monza (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sassuolo xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Sassuolo kick off?
Monza vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Sassuolo?
Monza 1 - 0 Sassuolo.
Where is Monza vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Sassuolo part of?
Monza vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 43% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Monza and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Sassuolo?
Record (3 meetings): Monza 2W | Draws 1 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Monza and Sassuolo in?
Monza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.81
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Monza xG
Total xG
2.96
1.34
Sassuolo xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Monza and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Monza and 1.34 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monza come into this having played 58 games, going 20W 17D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 1.10 PPG from 58 outings (17W 13D 28L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.33 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Monza's home form reads 10W 9D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.26 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 20W 17D 21L in their last 58 games (1.33 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 17W 13D 28L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Sassuolo away?
Monza's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.39 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Sassuolo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Monza have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Monza's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Monza
1
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Sassuolo?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 3, Sassuolo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Monza 1-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Sassuolo?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Sassuolo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Monza) and 68% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sassuolo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Monza's games and 61% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Monza's recent games and 68% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Sassuolo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Sassuolo 1-0 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.62 xG and Sassuolo 1.34 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Sassuolo attack 1.04 / defence 1.29, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 43% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 31%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 41%, Sassuolo 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Sassuolo's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.33 PPG, Sassuolo 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.