AC Milan 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Milan at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AC Milan vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AC Milan host Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AC Milan have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, AC Milan have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, AC Milan have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
AC Milan hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Bologna, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with AC Milan winning.
The historical record gives AC Milan a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AC Milan in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bologna in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 57% versus Bologna 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 55% | Bologna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.76 xG and Bologna 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.150 / defence 0.735 | Bologna attack 0.872 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.093. AC Milan's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 AC Milan games / 58 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Milan 62% | Draw 25% | Bologna 13%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 7.69. The model has a clear lean to AC Milan (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: AC Milan 30% | Bologna 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 62% | Draw 25% | Bologna 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG AC Milan 1.76 / Bologna 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.150 / def 0.735 | Bologna attack 0.872 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Bologna xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Milan vs Bologna kick off?
AC Milan vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
AC Milan 2 - 2 Bologna.
Where is AC Milan vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Bologna part of?
AC Milan vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 62% chance of winning, Bologna a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AC Milan and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will AC Milan vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
Record (5 meetings): AC Milan 3W | Draws 2 | Bologna 0W.
What form are AC Milan and Bologna in?
AC Milan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AC Milan's attack rating (1.15) and Bologna's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AC Milan's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
62%
1.62
25%
4.02
13%
7.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.46
0.70
Bologna xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
7.43
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
43.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.70 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Milan's recent record stands at 33W 13D 12L from 58 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 16L across 58 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AC Milan have managed 20W 4D 4L from 28 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 8W 9D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Milan are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.31 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Milan and Bologna in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 33W 13D 12L in their last 58 games (1.93 PPG), while Bologna have gone 22W 20D 16L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Bologna away?
AC Milan's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 2.29 PPG; Bologna away: 1.18 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bologna in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AC Milan go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AC Milan's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AC Milan
3
Draws
1
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Milan have won 6, Bologna have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Bologna 0-3 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Bologna?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 50%, Bologna 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AC Milan) and 64% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Milan play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of AC Milan's games and 71% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AC Milan vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of AC Milan's matches and 64% of Bologna's.
Do AC Milan and Bologna tend to score early?
AC Milan have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bologna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan and Bologna finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.76 xG and Bologna 0.70 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.15 / defence 0.73 against Bologna attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 62% | Draw 25% | Bologna 13%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 55%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AC Milan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.