Lazio 0-0 Napoli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lazio at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Napoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Napoli travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on Lazio. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Napoli stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Lazio) versus 1.30 (Napoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lazio, 3 for Napoli and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lazio trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Napoli trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 38% versus Napoli 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 40% | Napoli 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.21 xG and Napoli 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.912 / defence 0.820 | Napoli attack 1.106 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.095. Data: 58 Lazio games / 58 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 40% | Draw 31% | Napoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Napoli 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 30% | Napoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 40% | Draw 31% | Napoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Lazio 1.21 / Napoli 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 0.912 / def 0.820 | Napoli attack 1.106 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Lazio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Napoli xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Napoli kick off?
Lazio vs Napoli kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Napoli?
Lazio 0 - 0 Napoli.
Where is Lazio vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Napoli part of?
Lazio vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 40% chance of winning, Napoli a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lazio and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Napoli?
Record (5 meetings): Lazio 2W | Draws 0 | Napoli 3W.
What form are Lazio and Napoli in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Napoli (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lazio's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
40%
2.51
31%
3.21
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.20
0.99
Napoli xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lazio and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lazio and 0.99 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lazio's recent record stands at 32W 11D 15L from 58 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli, meanwhile, have gone 37W 10D 11L across 58 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.84 PPG, Napoli on 2.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 17W 6D 6L from 29 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Napoli's away record stands at 19W 5D 5L across 29 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.84 scored and 0.91 conceded. Napoli's attacking output running into Lazio's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Napoli in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Napoli in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 32W 11D 15L in their last 58 games (1.84 PPG), while Napoli have gone 37W 10D 11L in their last 58 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.97 PPG; Napoli away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Lazio or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Napoli in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lazio and Napoli runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2021, when Napoli won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lazio
2
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 4, Napoli have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Napoli 0-2 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 41%, Napoli 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lazio) and 52% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Napoli in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lazio's recent matches and 41% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lazio's recent games and 52% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Napoli tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Napoli in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lazio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 22, as Lazio and Napoli drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.21 xG and Napoli 0.99 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lazio fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Napoli landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.91 / defence 0.82 against Napoli attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 40% | Draw 31% | Napoli 29%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 40%, Napoli 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Napoli's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.84 PPG, Napoli 2.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.