AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AEK Athens FC face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos meet at Allwyn Arena in Super League 1 (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AEK Athens FC at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 2.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 1.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, AEK Athens FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Levadiakos managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended AEK Athens FC 1–0 Levadiakos — a AEK Athens FC win.
The head-to-head data gives AEK Athens FC an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 34% versus Levadiakos 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 40% | Levadiakos 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.94 xG and Levadiakos 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.288 / defence 0.763 | Levadiakos attack 1.314 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.150. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.288 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Levadiakos have an above-average attack rating of 1.314, which lifts their away xG to 1.15. AEK Athens FC have a tight defence (rating 0.763), which is pulling Levadiakos's projected output down. Data: built from AEK Athens FC's last 47 games and Levadiakos's last 47.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 55% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 21%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.83 | Draw 4.14 | Levadiakos 4.69. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AEK Athens FC's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AEK Athens FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 55% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG AEK Athens FC 1.94 / Levadiakos 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.288 / def 0.763 | Levadiakos attack 1.314 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Levadiakos xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos FAQs
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
AEK Athens FC 4 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 22) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 55% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.29x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.31x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from AEK Athens FC's last 47 games and Levadiakos's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.14
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
3.09
1.15
Levadiakos xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
3%
32.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.15 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 31W 9D 13L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Levadiakos's form line: 24W 15D 14L from 53 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 1.64 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.12 PPG from their last 26 home games (17W 4D 5L).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 11W 9D 6L from their last 26 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded. Levadiakos's attacking output running into AEK Athens FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 62%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
AEK Athens FC (Home) vs Levadiakos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos Form FAQs
What form are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 31W 9D 13L in their last 53 games (1.92 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 24W 15D 14L in their last 53 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Levadiakos away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.12 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.62 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AEK Athens FC have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, AEK Athens FC have won 6, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: AEK Athens FC 2-1 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 35%, Levadiakos 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AEK Athens FC) and 54% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 65% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 54% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 81% of Levadiakos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Levadiakos 4-0 at Allwyn Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.94 xG and Levadiakos 1.15 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.76 against Levadiakos attack 1.31 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 55% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 21%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 40%, Levadiakos 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Levadiakos's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.92 PPG, Levadiakos 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.