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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Aris Thessalonikis welcome Kifisia to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Kifisia — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kifisia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Aris Thessalonikis, 0 for Kifisia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Kifisia in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aris Thessalonikis 50% and Kifisia 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Kifisia 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.46 xG and Kifisia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.842 / defence 0.799 | Kifisia attack 0.861 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Kifisia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Aris Thessalonikis games / 20 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 28% | Kifisia 19%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Kifisia 5.26. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Kifisia 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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