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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Volos NFC encounter.

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Match Analysis

Panserraikos host Volos NFC at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Panserraikos — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Panserraikos have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Volos NFC's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panserraikos 0.40 PPG, Volos NFC 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Panserraikos have won 2, Volos NFC 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Volos NFC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Panserraikos in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 49% versus Volos NFC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 61% | Volos NFC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.95 xG and Volos NFC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.669 / defence 1.458 | Volos NFC attack 0.852 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.151. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Panserraikos games / 47 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Panserraikos 24% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 48%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Volos NFC 2.08. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 30% | Volos NFC 40% BTTS from recent games.

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