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Poisson model rates OFI at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
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Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as OFI welcome Panathinaikos to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Pankritio Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panathinaikos have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OFI at 1.60 PPG versus Panathinaikos's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Panathinaikos have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 encounters against OFI's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Panathinaikos winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Panathinaikos have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus Panathinaikos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 65% | Panathinaikos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.62 xG and Panathinaikos 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.201 / defence 0.942 | Panathinaikos attack 0.882 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.151. Data: 46 OFI games / 46 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 52% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 22%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Panathinaikos 4.55. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 40% | Panathinaikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 3 | Panathinaikos 4W • Goals trend: 2.88 goals/game | Total H2H goals: OFI 8 – 15 Panathinaikos • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: OFI 12% / Draw 38% / Panathinaikos 50% • Historical edge: Panathinaikos dominant — 4W from 8 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Panathinaikos (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates OFI as more likely (home 52% / draw 26% / away 22%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.88 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.58 (48% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D • Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D • OFI home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Panathinaikos away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (OFI 1.60 PPG vs Panathinaikos 1.50 PPG) • xG vs form (OFI): Poisson xG of 1.62 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.70 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Panathinaikos): Poisson xG of 0.96 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.0 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.58 (48% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~40% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 50% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 52% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG OFI 1.62 / Panathinaikos 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.201 / def 0.942 | Panathinaikos attack 0.882 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: OFI (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Panathinaikos xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panathinaikos kick off?
OFI vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
OFI 0 - 2 Panathinaikos.
Where is OFI vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Panathinaikos part of?
OFI vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 52% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both OFI and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panathinaikos?
• Record (8 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 3 | Panathinaikos 4W • Goals trend: 2.88 goals/game | Total H2H goals: OFI 8 – 15 Panathinaikos • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: OFI 12% / Draw 38% / Panathinaikos 50% • Historical edge: Panathinaikos dominant — 4W from 8 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Panathinaikos (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates OFI as more likely (home 52% / draw 26% / away 22%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.88 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.58 (48% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
What form are OFI and Panathinaikos in?
• OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D • Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D • OFI home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Panathinaikos away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (OFI 1.60 PPG vs Panathinaikos 1.50 PPG) • xG vs form (OFI): Poisson xG of 1.62 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.70 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Panathinaikos): Poisson xG of 0.96 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.0 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.58 (48% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~40% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 50% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about OFI vs Panathinaikos?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture