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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates PAOK at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Larisa vs PAOK encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Larisa and PAOK meet at AEL FC Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Larisa's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Larisa's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at AEL FC Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

PAOK have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAOK have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, PAOK are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Larisa, 1 for PAOK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with PAOK winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Larisa — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

PAOK — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 52% versus PAOK 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 38% | PAOK 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.82 xG and PAOK 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.731 / defence 1.317 | PAOK attack 1.245 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.159. Larisa's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Larisa games / 46 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Larisa 15% | Draw 23% | PAOK 62%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | PAOK 1.61. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Larisa 50% | PAOK 50%.

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