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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Asteras Tripolis host Atromitos at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Atromitos have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Asteras Tripolis at 0.80 PPG versus Atromitos's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Asteras Tripolis have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Atromitos have managed just 2 wins.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Asteras Tripolis winning.

The historical record gives Asteras Tripolis a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Atromitos in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 47% versus Atromitos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 47% | Atromitos 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.11 xG and Atromitos 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.939 / defence 1.038 | Atromitos attack 0.994 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.152. Data: 47 Asteras Tripolis games / 47 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 33% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 37%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Atromitos 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 50% | Atromitos 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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