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Poisson rates PAOK at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC encounter.

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Full Analysis

Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

PAOK (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PAOK's home record at Toumba Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.

AEK Athens FC have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AEK Athens FC's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for PAOK against 2.60 for AEK Athens FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours PAOK, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against AEK Athens FC — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 53% versus AEK Athens FC 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 67% | AEK Athens FC 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.39 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.412 / defence 0.712 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.438 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.150. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — their λ of 1.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.719 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.438 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. PAOK's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 PAOK games / 46 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 32%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | AEK Athens FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 30% | AEK Athens FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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