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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face AEK Athens FC.

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Match Analysis

Volos NFC host AEK Athens FC at Panthessaliko Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadium than their overall form suggests.

AEK Athens FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AEK Athens FC — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

AEK Athens FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 9 encounters against Volos NFC's 1 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AEK Athens FC have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 44% versus AEK Athens FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | AEK Athens FC 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.65 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.733 / defence 1.195 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.347 / defence 0.636. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.094. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.636 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Volos NFC games / 48 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 13% | Draw 23% | AEK Athens FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 7.69 | Draw 4.35 | AEK Athens FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 50% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.

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