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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.

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Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 7W 1D 2L at Levadia Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Olympiakos Piraeus, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–3 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 64% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.31 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.552 / defence 1.042 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.242 / defence 0.613. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.158. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.552 — their λ of 1.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.613 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Levadiakos games / 46 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 33% | Draw 25% | Olympiakos Piraeus 42%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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