RED Star FC 93 2-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as RED Star FC 93 face Nancy.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

RED Star FC 93 and Nancy meet at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

RED Star FC 93 (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Nancy have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Nancy's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from RED Star FC 93's last 10 home games and Nancy's last 10 away games) — RED Star FC 93 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Nancy in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, RED Star FC 93 edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended RED Star FC 93 1–0 Nancy — a RED Star FC 93 win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Nancy — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 46% versus Nancy 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 50% | Nancy 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.19 xG and Nancy 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.900 / defence 1.218 | Nancy attack 0.785 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Nancy's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. RED Star FC 93's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nancy's projected output up. Data: built from RED Star FC 93's last 55 games and Nancy's last 22.

Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 28% | Nancy 34%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.67 | Draw 3.53 | Nancy 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: RED Star FC 93 60% (last 10 home games) | Nancy 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights