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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Dunkerque encounter.

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Match Analysis

Amiens host Dunkerque at Stade de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Amiens — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Amiens at Stade de la Licorne this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dunkerque's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dunkerque are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Amiens, 3 for Dunkerque and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–6 with Dunkerque winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Amiens in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 52% versus Dunkerque 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 55% | Dunkerque 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.17 xG and Dunkerque 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.060 / defence 1.258 | Dunkerque attack 1.103 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Data: 56 Amiens games / 56 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Amiens 27% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 48%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Dunkerque 2.08. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.

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