Grenoble 0-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade des Alpes to face Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Grenoble (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade des Alpes this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Reims have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Reims are 0.50 PPG clear of Grenoble in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grenoble lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 4–2 with Grenoble winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 55% versus Reims 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 52% | Reims 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.12 xG and Reims 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.908 / defence 1.001 | Reims attack 1.037 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.212. Data: 56 Grenoble games / 22 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 33% | Draw 28% | Reims 39%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Reims 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 50% | Reims 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 33% | Draw 28% | Reims 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Grenoble 1.12 / Reims 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.908 / def 1.001 | Reims attack 1.037 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Reims (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Reims xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Reims kick off?
Grenoble vs Reims kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Reims?
Grenoble 0 - 0 Reims.
Where is Grenoble vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Reims part of?
Grenoble vs Reims is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 33% chance of winning, Reims a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Grenoble and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Reims?
Record (1 meetings): Grenoble 1W | Draws 0 | Reims 0W.
What form are Grenoble and Reims in?
Grenoble (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Reims (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.91x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.04x) against Grenoble's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.61
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.38
1.26
Reims xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.26 for Reims, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Grenoble have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 19W 15D 22L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims's form line: 19W 15D 22L from 56 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Grenoble against 1.29 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Grenoble have posted 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (12W 10D 6L).
On the road, Reims have gone 8W 9D 11L from 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Reims in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 19W 15D 22L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Reims have gone 19W 15D 22L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Reims away?
Grenoble's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.64 PPG; Reims away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Reims in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Grenoble
1
Draws
0
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Reims?
From 2 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 1, Reims have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Grenoble 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Reims?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 57%, Reims 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Grenoble) and 50% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Reims in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Grenoble's recent matches and 50% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Grenoble's recent games and 50% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Reims tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Reims in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble and Reims finished level at 0-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.12 xG and Reims 1.26 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Reims landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Reims attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 33% | Draw 28% | Reims 39%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 52%, Reims 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reims's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.29 PPG, Reims 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.