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Poisson model rates PAU at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Boulogne make the trip to Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

PAU have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PAU's home record at Nouste Camp: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Boulogne (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for PAU against 1.30 for Boulogne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with PAU winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 58% versus Boulogne 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 67% | Boulogne 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.40 xG and Boulogne 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.121 / defence 1.281 | Boulogne attack 0.835 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Data: 56 PAU games / 22 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAU 40% | Draw 26% | Boulogne 34%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Boulogne 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 60% | Boulogne 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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