🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Guingamp at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Saint Etienne encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Guingamp welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Saint Etienne — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.40 (Saint Etienne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guingamp's 30% rate and Saint Etienne's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 3, Saint Etienne 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 3–2 with Guingamp winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 52% versus Saint Etienne 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 64% | Saint Etienne 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.39 xG and Saint Etienne 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.105 / defence 0.994 | Saint Etienne attack 0.780 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.205. Data: 56 Guingamp games / 22 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 25%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 4.00. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Saint Etienne 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights