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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Rodez make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at Stade Gabriel Montpied than their overall form suggests.

Rodez have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rodez's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Rodez arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rodez in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Clermont Foot lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Rodez — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Clermont Foot 55% and Rodez 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 39% | Rodez 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.47 xG and Rodez 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 1.033 / defence 0.977 | Rodez attack 1.175 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Clermont Foot games / 56 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 25% | Rodez 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Rodez 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rodez (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Rodez 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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