Annecy 2-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RED Star FC 93 make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 4W 4D 2L at Parc des Sports — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RED Star FC 93 (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Annecy, 1.40 for RED Star FC 93 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Annecy 2W, RED Star FC 93 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus RED Star FC 93 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 41% | RED Star FC 93 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.02 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.067 / defence 0.864 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.045 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.207. Data: 57 Annecy games / 56 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 37%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | RED Star FC 93 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | RED Star FC 93 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Annecy 1.02 / RED Star FC 93 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.067 / def 0.864 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.045 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.09
RED Star FC 93 xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Annecy 2 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 33% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Annecy and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and RED Star FC 93?
Record (3 meetings): Annecy 2W | Draws 0 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are Annecy and RED Star FC 93 in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.07x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RED Star FC 93's attack (1.04x) against Annecy's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
33%
3.00
30%
3.35
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.11
1.09
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Annecy and 1.09 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 22W 15D 19L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 19W 18D 19L from 56 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Annecy against 1.34 for RED Star FC 93. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.71 PPG from 28 outings (13W 9D 6L).
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 9D 10L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 22W 15D 19L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 19W 18D 19L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Annecy's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.71 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Annecy or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RED Star FC 93 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Annecy
0
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Annecy 2-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and RED Star FC 93?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 46%, RED Star FC 93 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Annecy) and 46% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 in 32%; RED Star FC 93 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Annecy's recent matches and 46% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Annecy's recent games and 46% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat RED Star FC 93 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat RED Star FC 93 2-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.02 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.09 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 37%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 41%, RED Star FC 93 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.45 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.