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Poisson rates Annecy at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Annecy encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Laval welcome Annecy to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Francis Le Basser this season.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Annecy's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Annecy are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Laval, 3 for Annecy and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Laval in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Annecy in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 43% versus Annecy 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Laval 38% | Annecy 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 0.69 xG and Annecy 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.673 / defence 1.138 | Annecy attack 1.011 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Laval's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Laval games / 56 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Laval 19% | Draw 28% | Annecy 52%. Fair-value odds: Laval 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 1.92. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Laval 30% | Annecy 40% BTTS from recent games.

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