Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Yunnan Yukun face Shanghai Shenhua.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium plays host to Yunnan Yukun versus Shanghai Shenhua in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Yunnan Yukun have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Yunnan Yukun at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Shanghai Shenhua's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Yunnan Yukun against 1.90 for Shanghai Shenhua. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Yunnan Yukun's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) — Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Shanghai Shenhua in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2025, ended Yunnan Yukun 4–4 Shanghai Shenhua — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Yunnan Yukun — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Shanghai Shenhua 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Shanghai Shenhua 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Yunnan Yukun surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Shanghai Shenhua have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 71% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.87 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.102 / defence 1.236 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.243 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.260. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack rating of 1.243, which lifts their away xG to 1.94. Yunnan Yukun's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output up. Data: built from Yunnan Yukun's last 41 games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 41.

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 22% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.65 | Draw 4.56 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.94) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Yunnan Yukun's last 10 home games and Shanghai Shenhua's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Yunnan Yukun 70% (last 10 home games) | Shanghai Shenhua 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights