Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Qingdao Jonoon travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 July 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Betting Odds
The market has installed Henan Jianye as the clear favourite — Henan Jianye 1.58 (implied 59%), Draw 3.98 (23%), Qingdao Jonoon 5.26 (implied 18%).
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 3W 3D 4L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.30 PPG versus Qingdao Jonoon's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Season Statistics
Henan Jianye's full-season record stands at 6W 3D 8L from 17 games. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 17 games (6%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.
Across 17 matches this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 6W 3D 8L. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 17 games (29%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Qingdao Jonoon have been the more prolific side this season at 1.60 goals per game compared to 1.10 for the hosts. Henan Jianye lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 2). Qingdao Jonoon score 2+ goals far more often (29% vs 6%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Henan Jianye 2/3 vs Qingdao Jonoon 1/1 this season.
Table Standings
In the Super League table, Henan Jianye sit 13th on 15 points, 1 place and 1 point ahead of Qingdao Jonoon in 14th.
On home turf, Henan Jianye's Super League record reads 3W 1D 4L this term. Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 1D 6L in Super League this season.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 66% and Qingdao Jonoon 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 64% | Qingdao Jonoon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.50 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.763 / defence 0.983 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.987 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Henan Jianye games / 47 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 33%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The model sees Henan Jianye as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 42% versus the market's fair-implied 59% (priced at 1.58). With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction. The market (1.65, fair-implied 57%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.67, fair-implied 55%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Henan Jianye (Daniel Ramos) | Qingdao Jonoon (Li Xiaopeng) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (7 meetings): Henan Jianye 3W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W • Goals trend: 1.71 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Henan Jianye 7 – 5 Qingdao Jonoon • H2H markets: BTTS 29% | Over 2.5 14% | Win rates: Henan Jianye 43% / Draw 29% / Qingdao Jonoon 29% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 25% / away 33% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 1.71 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.83 (54% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 29%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D • Henan Jianye home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Henan Jianye 1.30 PPG vs Qingdao Jonoon 1.60 PPG) • xG vs form (Henan Jianye): Poisson projects 1.50 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Qingdao Jonoon): Poisson projects 1.32 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.83 (54% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~65% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 57% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 42% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Henan Jianye 1.50 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.763 / def 0.983 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.987 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Henan Jianye 1.58 (impl 59%) | Draw 3.98 (impl 23%) | Qingdao Jonoon 5.26 (impl 18%) • Market favourite: Henan Jianye at 1.58 • Poisson vs market: same direction (Henan Jianye) but Poisson rates them at 42% vs market implied 59% — model sees a 17pp premium worth monitoring • Henan Jianye Win: Poisson 42% vs market fair-implied 59% (17pp gap) — the model sees Henan Jianye as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Qingdao Jonoon Win: Poisson 33% vs market fair-implied 18% (16pp gap) — the model sees Qingdao Jonoon as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.65 (impl 61%) / Under 2.5 2.16 (impl 46%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 54% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.67 (impl 60%) / No 2.07 (impl 48%) | Poisson BTTS probability 57%
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Qingdao Jonoon xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Friday 17 July 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 42% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon?
• Record (7 meetings): Henan Jianye 3W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Jonoon 2W • Goals trend: 1.71 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Henan Jianye 7 – 5 Qingdao Jonoon • H2H markets: BTTS 29% | Over 2.5 14% | Win rates: Henan Jianye 43% / Draw 29% / Qingdao Jonoon 29% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 25% / away 33% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 1.71 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.83 (54% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 29%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon in?
• Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D • Henan Jianye home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Henan Jianye 1.30 PPG vs Qingdao Jonoon 1.60 PPG) • xG vs form (Henan Jianye): Poisson projects 1.50 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Qingdao Jonoon): Poisson projects 1.32 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.83 (54% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~65% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 57% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
• 1X2 market: Henan Jianye 1.58 (impl 59%) | Draw 3.98 (impl 23%) | Qingdao Jonoon 5.26 (impl 18%) • Market favourite: Henan Jianye at 1.58 • Poisson vs market: same direction (Henan Jianye) but Poisson rates them at 42% vs market implied 59% — model sees a 17pp premium worth monitoring • Henan Jianye Win: Poisson 42% vs market fair-implied 59% (17pp gap) — the model sees Henan Jianye as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Qingdao Jonoon Win: Poisson 33% vs market fair-implied 18% (16pp gap) — the model sees Qingdao Jonoon as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.65 (impl 61%) / Under 2.5 2.16 (impl 46%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 54% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.67 (impl 60%) / No 2.07 (impl 48%) | Poisson BTTS probability 57%