Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Wuhan Sports Centre to face Wuhan Three Towns in Super League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record at Wuhan Sports Centre: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Tianjin Teda are 0.50 PPG clear of Wuhan Three Towns in recent Super League fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Wuhan Three Towns 4W, Tianjin Teda 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 63% versus Tianjin Teda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 59% | Tianjin Teda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.11 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.897 / defence 1.018 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.990 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.342. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.725 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Wuhan Three Towns games / 52 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 31% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 42%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Tianjin Teda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Tianjin Teda 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 31% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.11 / Tianjin Teda 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.897 / def 1.018 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.990 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Tianjin Teda xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 31% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
Record (9 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 4W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 3W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.99x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
31%
3.27
27%
3.70
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.46
1.35
Tianjin Teda xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.35 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 10W 15D 26L from 51 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 19L across 51 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Three Towns heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 8W 7D 10L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.37 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 10W 15D 26L in their last 51 games (0.88 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.24 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 4-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 60%, Tianjin Teda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 48% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 56% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 48% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wuhan Three Towns's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda finished level at 0-0 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.11 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.35 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.99 / defence 0.72, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 31% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 42%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 59%, Tianjin Teda 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.