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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Chongqing Tongliang Long host Dalian Zhixing at Tongliang Long Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chongqing Tongliang Long's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 1L across 9 games at Tongliang Long Stadium this term (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Chongqing Tongliang Long are significantly better at Tongliang Long Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Dalian Zhixing have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chongqing Tongliang Long at 1.00 PPG versus Dalian Zhixing's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Table Standings

In the Super League table, Chongqing Tongliang Long sit 2nd on 28 points, 1 place and 3 points ahead of Dalian Zhixing in 3rd.

Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record this season stands at 4W 4D 1L. On the road, Dalian Zhixing's record stands at 2W 1D 5L this term. Chongqing Tongliang Long: Promotion - AFC Champions League 2.

Trading Patterns

Chongqing Tongliang Long in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Dalian Zhixing in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% versus Dalian Zhixing 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Tongliang Long 39% | Dalian Zhixing 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.49 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.808 / defence 0.912 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.828 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 18 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 47 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 48% | Draw 26% | Dalian Zhixing 26%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Dalian Zhixing 3.85. Chongqing Tongliang Long hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% | Dalian Zhixing 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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