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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 24 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Pudong Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SHANGHAI SIPG at Pudong Football Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Pudong Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: SHANGHAI SIPG have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 7 past contests while Qingdao Jonoon have managed just 1 wins.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Standings Snapshot

SHANGHAI SIPG hold the table advantage, sitting 12th with 15 points — 2 positions and 1 point clear of Qingdao Jonoon in 14th.

SHANGHAI SIPG's home record this season stands at 3W 3D 2L. On the road, Qingdao Jonoon's record stands at 1W 1D 6L this term.

In-Play Profile

SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 81% and Qingdao Jonoon 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 74% | Qingdao Jonoon 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.07 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.050 / defence 0.983 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.987 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 47 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 55% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 24%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.17. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games.

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