Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Jonoon meet at Wuhan Sports Centre in Super League (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Wuhan Three Towns are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Qingdao Jonoon are 0.70 PPG clear of Wuhan Three Towns over their recent games (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Wuhan Three Towns, who have won 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Qingdao Jonoon — Qingdao Jonoon have 1 win, with 1 draw.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Wuhan Three Towns 0–1 Qingdao Jonoon — a Qingdao Jonoon win.
The head-to-head data gives Wuhan Three Towns an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Wuhan Three Towns half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 58% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 53% | Qingdao Jonoon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.903 / defence 0.944 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.763 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.175. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 39 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 39.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 51% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.96 | Draw 3.72 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.53. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), yet Qingdao Jonoon are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Wuhan Three Towns 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Jonoon (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches — though recent form (Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 70% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, matchday 10 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 51% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.903 / def 0.944 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.763 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Qingdao Jonoon xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 3 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Super League fixture (matchday 10) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 51% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Jonoon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 0.90x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.76x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 39 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.72
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.29
0.85
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
5%
19.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.85 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 14W 14D 32L from 60 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 32L across 60 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 0.90 for Qingdao Jonoon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 8W 7D 15L from their last 30 home games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 3W 6D 21L across their last 30 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.05 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Qingdao Jonoon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 games (0.93 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.03 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 Wuhan Three Towns on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Jonoon?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Jonoon?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 57%, Qingdao Jonoon 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 43% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 30% of games; Qingdao Jonoon in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Jonoon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Jonoon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 37% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Jonoon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 43% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Jonoon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 77% of Qingdao Jonoon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.85 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.76 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 51% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 22%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Qingdao Jonoon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Qingdao Jonoon 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 0.93 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.