Tianjin Teda 2-2 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Tianjin Teda's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Wuhan Three Towns's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 3W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 4–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Wuhan Three Towns 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.98 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.845 / defence 1.154 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.886 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.129. Wuhan Three Towns bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Tianjin Teda games / 38 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 57% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 22%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Wuhan Three Towns 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 30% | Wuhan Three Towns 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 57% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.98 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.845 / def 1.154 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.886 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Wuhan Three Towns xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 57% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (8 meetings): Tianjin Teda 3W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 4W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.84x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.89x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.62
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.14
1.16
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
3%
33.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.16 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 24W 14D 22L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 32L across 60 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Three Towns heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 15W 9D 6L from 30 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 6W 7D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.80 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 4-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 43%, Wuhan Three Towns 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 53% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.98 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.16 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.89 / defence 1.41, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 57% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 22%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.