Shenyang Urban 3-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shenyang Urban face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shenyang Urban host Tianjin Teda at Shenyang Urban Construction University Stadium in Super League (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 07:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Looking at their last 10 matches, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.40 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.859 / defence 1.150 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.816 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.786 / away 1.225. Data: built from Shenyang Urban's last 2 games and Tianjin Teda's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 43% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 31%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.34 | Draw 3.78 | Tianjin Teda 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shenyang Urban at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenyang Urban offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Shenyang Urban 2 games, Tianjin Teda 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Shenyang Urban Construction University Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 43% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Shenyang Urban 1.40 / Tianjin Teda 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.859 / def 1.150 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.816 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.786 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Tianjin Teda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Shenyang Urban Construction University Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda?
Shenyang Urban 3 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Shenyang Urban Construction University Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 43% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shenyang Urban's attack at 0.86x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Shenyang Urban's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenyang Urban's last 2 games and Tianjin Teda's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenyang Urban Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.78
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
2.55
1.15
Tianjin Teda xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.15 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Shenyang Urban (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2026. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shenyang Urban
0
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenyang Urban vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenyang Urban have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Tianjin Teda 1-0 Shenyang Urban.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Shenyang Urban run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenyang Urban beat Tianjin Teda 3-0 at Shenyang Urban Construction University Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 1.40 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.15 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shenyang Urban beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tianjin Teda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.82 / defence 0.91, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 43% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 31%, with Shenyang Urban to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.