Shenyang Urban 0-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shenyang Urban face Dalian Zhixing.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dalian Zhixing travel to Tiexi Stadium to take on Shenyang Urban in Super League (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Zhixing stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dalian Zhixing away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 2.57 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 1.162 / defence 0.979 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.225 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.155. Dalian Zhixing's defence rating of 1.319 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shenyang Urban's projected output up. Dalian Zhixing have an above-average attack rating of 1.225, which lifts their away xG to 1.39. Data: built from Shenyang Urban's last 6 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 36.
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 63% | Draw 18% | Dalian Zhixing 19%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 1.59 | Draw 5.61 | Dalian Zhixing 5.23. The model has a clear lean to Shenyang Urban (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.57 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenyang Urban are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.96 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, matchday 7 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 63% | Draw 18% | Dalian Zhixing 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Shenyang Urban 2.57 / Dalian Zhixing 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 1.162 / def 0.979 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.225 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Dalian Zhixing xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing FAQs
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing?
Shenyang Urban 0 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing is a Super League fixture (matchday 7) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 63% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 19% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Dalian Zhixing will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shenyang Urban's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.57. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Shenyang Urban's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenyang Urban's last 6 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenyang Urban Win
63%
1.59
18%
5.61
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
3.96
1.39
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
8%
13.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
1%
68.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.39 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Shenyang Urban (Home) vs Dalian Zhixing (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2026. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shenyang Urban
0
Draws
2
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Dalian Zhixing?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenyang Urban have won 0, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Dalian Zhixing 1-0 Shenyang Urban.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Dalian Zhixing defy the odds to beat Shenyang Urban 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Shenyang Urban 0-1 at Tiexi Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 2.57 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.39 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenyang Urban fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Dalian Zhixing attack 1.23 / defence 1.32, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 63% | Draw 18% | Dalian Zhixing 19%, with Shenyang Urban to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Dalian Zhixing win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.