Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tongliang Long Stadium plays host to Chongqing Tongliang Long versus Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.93 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.927 / defence 1.153 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.838 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.161. Data: 5 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 35 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% | Draw 22% | Sichuan Jiuniu 22%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Chongqing Tongliang Long (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chongqing Tongliang Long at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% | Draw 22% | Sichuan Jiuniu 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.93 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.927 / def 1.153 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.838 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 56% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Sichuan Jiuniu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Sichuan Jiuniu away split: 0.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack at 0.93x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.84x) against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.54
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
3.05
1.12
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
3%
31.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.12 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
0
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chongqing Tongliang Long cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 at Tongliang Long Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.93 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.12 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% | Draw 22% | Sichuan Jiuniu 22%, with Chongqing Tongliang Long to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.