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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Jinan Olympic Sports Center plays host to Shandong Luneng versus Shenyang Urban in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Form

Shandong Luneng (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Statistical Overview

Shandong Luneng's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 15W 8D 7L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 2.3 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 6-0 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 6-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 13 of 30 games (43%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.23 reds per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.43 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.092 / defence 0.929 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.937 / away 1.457. Data: 30 Shandong Luneng games / 0 Shenyang Urban games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 66% | Draw 18% | Shenyang Urban 16%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Shenyang Urban 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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