Tianjin Teda 0-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Chongqing Tongliang Long at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 2.10 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.942 / defence 0.945 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.937 / away 1.457. Data: 30 Tianjin Teda games / 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 59% | Draw 21% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 59% | Draw 21% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Tianjin Teda 2.10 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.942 / def 0.945 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.937 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 59% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Tianjin Teda home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.94) and Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
59%
1.71
21%
4.82
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.27
1.17
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
12%
8.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
3%
39.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.17 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Tongliang Long runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 2 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 0, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Tianjin Teda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Tongliang Long drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 2.10 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.17 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Chongqing Tongliang Long landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 59% | Draw 21% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.