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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda host Chongqing Tongliang Long at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at TEDA Football Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TEDA Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Season Statistics

Tianjin Teda's full-season record stands at 12W 8D 10L from 30 games. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 2.10 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.942 / defence 0.945 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.937 / away 1.457. Data: 30 Tianjin Teda games / 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 59% | Draw 21% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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