Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun meet at Wuhan Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Current Form
Wuhan Three Towns's overall Super League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Wuhan Sports Centre this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Wuhan Three Towns are significantly better at Wuhan Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Yunnan Yukun have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Yunnan Yukun have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Yunnan Yukun are 1.20 PPG clear of Wuhan Three Towns in recent Super League fixtures (1.60 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Wuhan Three Towns register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Yunnan Yukun in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wuhan Three Towns lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 60% and Yunnan Yukun 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 63% | Yunnan Yukun 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.38 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.902 / defence 1.132 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.191 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.336. Data: 44 Wuhan Three Towns games / 44 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 30% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 48%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Yunnan Yukun 2.08. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 70% | Yunnan Yukun 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 31 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 30% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.38 / Yunnan Yukun 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.902 / def 1.132 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.191 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Yunnan Yukun xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 31 May 2026 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 30% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (2 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 0 | Yunnan Yukun 1W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Yunnan Yukun's attack (1.19x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
30%
3.39
23%
4.35
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.18
1.80
Yunnan Yukun xG
3.39
30%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
17%
6.06
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
5%
20.53
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.80 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 6W 7D 17L from 30 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Yunnan Yukun, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 10L across 30 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Yunnan Yukun by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Three Towns heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 4W 5D 6L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yunnan Yukun's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.57 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.13 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Yunnan Yukun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
1
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun?
From 3 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Yunnan Yukun.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Wuhan Three Towns, 80% for Yunnan Yukun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Wuhan Three Towns and 60% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 80% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 60% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 15, as Wuhan Three Towns and Yunnan Yukun drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.38 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.80 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.19 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 30% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 48%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 63%, Yunnan Yukun 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Yunnan Yukun arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.