Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 43%, yet in-form SHANGHAI SIPG provide a compelling counter-argument — this Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host SHANGHAI SIPG at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, SHANGHAI SIPG have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Qingdao Jonoon.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Qingdao Jonoon 3–4 SHANGHAI SIPG — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.
The H2H data backs the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6 of 6 H2H matches, and at 4.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 42% | SHANGHAI SIPG 77%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Qingdao Jonoon surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while SHANGHAI SIPG have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.30 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.952 / defence 1.032 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.859 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.164. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 38 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 38.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 29%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.34 | Draw 3.60 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Jonoon are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SHANGHAI SIPG (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 50% (last 10 home games) | SHANGHAI SIPG 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.30 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.952 / def 1.032 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.859 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.03
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG FAQs
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Qingdao Jonoon 3 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 43% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.95x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 38 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.60
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.33
1.03
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.03 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 13W 15D 32L from 60 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 45W 9D 6L across 60 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 10W 9D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 22W 4D 4L across their last 30 away games, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.80 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 70%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon (Home) vs SHANGHAI SIPG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG Form FAQs
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 games (0.90 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 45W 9D 6L in their last 60 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.30 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Aug 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won Qingdao Jonoon 0-5 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 50%, SHANGHAI SIPG 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 77% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 37%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 63% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 90% of SHANGHAI SIPG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SHANGHAI SIPG.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.30 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.03 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.86 / defence 0.83, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 29%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 42%, SHANGHAI SIPG 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Jonoon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.