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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Chongqing Tongliang Long travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Chongqing Tongliang Long 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Chongqing Tongliang Long winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Dalian Zhixing show 9W 9D 12L from 30 outings in Super League. Attacking returns: 1.0 goals per game; defensive: 1.5 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 30 games (3%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.24 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.990 / defence 0.968 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.905 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.155. Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Dalian Zhixing games / 8 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 41% | Draw 28% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 30%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

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