Dalian Zhixing 1-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Chongqing Tongliang Long travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.24 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.990 / defence 0.968 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.905 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.155. Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Dalian Zhixing games / 8 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 41% | Draw 28% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 30%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 41% | Draw 28% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.24 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.990 / def 0.968 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.905 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Dalian Zhixing 1 - 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 41% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Dalian Zhixing home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.51
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.25
1.01
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.01 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dalian Zhixing
0
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.24 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.01 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chongqing Tongliang Long landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.91 / defence 0.77, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 41% | Draw 28% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 30%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.