Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun meet at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Yunnan Yukun have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Tianjin Teda, 1.20 for Yunnan Yukun — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Yunnan Yukun in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Tianjin Teda 1W, Yunnan Yukun 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Statistical Overview
Tianjin Teda's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 4W 6D 7L from 17 matches. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.3 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 1 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
On the season-wide numbers, Yunnan Yukun show 7W 3D 8L from 18 outings in Super League. Attacking returns: 1.9 goals per game; defensive: 1.8 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 18 games (33%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.
Yunnan Yukun have been the more prolific side this season at 1.90 goals per game compared to 1.30 for the hosts. Tianjin Teda have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.30 per game against Yunnan Yukun's 1.80. Tianjin Teda lead on clean sheets this season (4 vs 3). Yunnan Yukun score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 18%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/5 vs Yunnan Yukun 2/2 this season.
Current Standings
In the Super League table, Yunnan Yukun sit 5th on 24 points, 10 places and 16 points ahead of Tianjin Teda in 15th.
Tianjin Teda's home record this season stands at 2W 3D 4L. Away from home, Yunnan Yukun have posted 3W 2D 5L in Super League this season. Tianjin Teda: Relegation - League One.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Yunnan Yukun — key trading statistics (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 55% and Yunnan Yukun 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 53% | Yunnan Yukun 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.82 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.911 / defence 0.965 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.211 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Tianjin Teda games / 48 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Yunnan Yukun 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Yunnan Yukun 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Manager edge: Tianjin Teda led by Yu Genwei • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 1 | Yunnan Yukun 2W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 4 – 4 Yunnan Yukun • H2H markets: BTTS 25% | Over 2.5 25% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 25% / Draw 25% / Yunnan Yukun 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 44% / draw 22% / away 34% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (25% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.41 (66% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 25%, Poisson probability 67% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L • Tianjin Teda home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Yunnan Yukun away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG vs Yunnan Yukun 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson projects 1.82 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Yunnan Yukun): Poisson xG of 1.59 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.41 (66% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Tianjin Teda 7/10, Yunnan Yukun 9/10; Poisson BTTS probability 67% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.82 / Yunnan Yukun 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.911 / def 0.965 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.211 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Yunnan Yukun xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 44% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun?
• Record (4 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 1 | Yunnan Yukun 2W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 4 – 4 Yunnan Yukun • H2H markets: BTTS 25% | Over 2.5 25% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 25% / Draw 25% / Yunnan Yukun 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 44% / draw 22% / away 34% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (25% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.41 (66% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 25%, Poisson probability 67% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun in?
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L • Tianjin Teda home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Yunnan Yukun away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG vs Yunnan Yukun 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson projects 1.82 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Yunnan Yukun): Poisson xG of 1.59 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.41 (66% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Tianjin Teda 7/10, Yunnan Yukun 9/10; Poisson BTTS probability 67% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture