Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Dalian Zhixing at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Huizhou Olympic Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Zhixing have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hangzhou Greentown at 1.50 PPG versus Dalian Zhixing's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dalian Zhixing in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 2 for Dalian Zhixing and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Dalian Zhixing in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 62% versus Dalian Zhixing 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 69% | Dalian Zhixing 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.80 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.960 / defence 1.140 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.849 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.314. Data: 49 Hangzhou Greentown games / 48 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 27%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Dalian Zhixing 3.70. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 60% | Dalian Zhixing 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.80 / Dalian Zhixing 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.960 / def 1.140 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.849 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Dalian Zhixing xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 2 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 50% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (3 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 1 | Dalian Zhixing 2W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.96x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.33
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.07
1.27
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
4%
22.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.27 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 16D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Zhixing sit at 1.33 PPG from 48 outings (18W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.40 PPG, Dalian Zhixing on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hangzhou Greentown's home form reads 10W 10D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Zhixing have taken 0.74 points per game from 23 outings (3W 8D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.21 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 17W 16D 15L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.74 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2026, when Dalian Zhixing won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
2
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 70%, Dalian Zhixing at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hangzhou Greentown and 52% for Dalian Zhixing. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 61% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 52% of Dalian Zhixing's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Dalian Zhixing 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Dalian Zhixing 3-2 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.80 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.27 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Draw 23% | Dalian Zhixing 27%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 69%, Dalian Zhixing 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.