Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Shanghai Shenhua travel to Tongliang Long Stadium to take on Chongqing Tongliang Long. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record at Tongliang Long Stadium: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Super League appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Chongqing Tongliang Long are significantly better at Tongliang Long Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Chongqing Tongliang Long) versus 1.20 (Shanghai Shenhua). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chongqing Tongliang Long, 1 for Shanghai Shenhua and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Season Statistics
Chongqing Tongliang Long's full-season record stands at 7W 7D 4L from 18 games. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 18 games (6%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.
The visitors have accumulated 8W 5D 4L from their 17 Super League appearances this term. Their scoring output is 2.1 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-3 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 17 games (35%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Shanghai Shenhua have been the more prolific side this season at 2.10 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. Chongqing Tongliang Long have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.10 per game against Shanghai Shenhua's 1.60. Chongqing Tongliang Long lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 3). Shanghai Shenhua score 2+ goals far more often (35% vs 6%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0/1 vs Shanghai Shenhua 5/5 this season.
Table Context
The standings have Chongqing Tongliang Long (2nd, 28 pts) 8 places above Shanghai Shenhua (10th, 19 pts) — a 9-point gap in Super League.
At home this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 4W 4D 1L. Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 3D 2L on their travels. Chongqing Tongliang Long: Promotion - AFC Champions League 2.
In-Play Profile
Chongqing Tongliang Long in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% and Shanghai Shenhua 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Tongliang Long 39% | Shanghai Shenhua 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.28 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.808 / defence 0.912 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.265 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 47 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 31% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 44%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% | Shanghai Shenhua 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 11:00 UTC • Manager edge: Chongqing Tongliang Long led by Salvador Suay • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2 – 4 Shanghai Shenhua • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0% / Draw 50% / Shanghai Shenhua 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 31% / draw 25% / away 44% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.85 (54% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D • Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W • Chongqing Tongliang Long home split: 1.78 PPG from 9 | GF 1.44 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • Shanghai Shenhua away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.00 PPG vs Shanghai Shenhua 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson xG of 1.28 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.44 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Shanghai Shenhua): Poisson projects 1.57 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.85 (54% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~68% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 57% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 31% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.28 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.808 / def 0.912 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.265 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Shanghai Shenhua xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 31% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shanghai Shenhua?
• Record (2 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2 – 4 Shanghai Shenhua • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0% / Draw 50% / Shanghai Shenhua 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 31% / draw 25% / away 44% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.85 (54% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shanghai Shenhua in?
• Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D • Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W • Chongqing Tongliang Long home split: 1.78 PPG from 9 | GF 1.44 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • Shanghai Shenhua away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.00 PPG vs Shanghai Shenhua 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson xG of 1.28 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.44 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Shanghai Shenhua): Poisson projects 1.57 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.85 (54% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~68% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 57% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture