Dalian Zhixing 2-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 55%, yet in-form Henan Jianye provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Henan Jianye travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing in Super League (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Zhixing stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Dalian Zhixing have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Henan Jianye's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Henan Jianye are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dalian Zhixing, 1 for Henan Jianye and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Dalian Zhixing 0–4 Henan Jianye — a Henan Jianye win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 40% versus Henan Jianye 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 33% | Henan Jianye 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dalian Zhixing surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Henan Jianye have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.54 xG and Henan Jianye 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.006 / defence 0.719 | Henan Jianye attack 0.968 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.150. Dalian Zhixing have a tight defence (rating 0.719), which is pulling Henan Jianye's projected output down. Data: built from Dalian Zhixing's last 35 games and Henan Jianye's last 35.
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 55% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 20%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.83 | Draw 3.89 | Henan Jianye 5.13. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Zhixing (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Henan Jianye (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dalian Zhixing 10% (last 10 home games) | Henan Jianye 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, matchday 6 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 55% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.54 / Henan Jianye 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.006 / def 0.719 | Henan Jianye attack 0.968 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Henan Jianye xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye FAQs
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Dalian Zhixing 2 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye is a Super League fixture (matchday 6) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 55% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Zhixing's last 35 games and Henan Jianye's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.89
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.34
0.80
Henan Jianye xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
4%
23.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 0.80 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Zhixing's recent record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 13L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Zhixing on 1.20 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Zhixing have managed 8W 2D 5L from their last 15 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across their last 15 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.73 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 73%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing (Home) vs Henan Jianye (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Henan Jianye away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.73 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Aug 2025, when Henan Jianye won Henan Jianye 4-0 Dalian Zhixing.
Dalian Zhixing's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Henan Jianye 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 20%, Henan Jianye 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Dalian Zhixing) and 60% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing have failed to score in 40% of games; Henan Jianye in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 67% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 60% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 73% of Henan Jianye's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out Henan Jianye 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Henan Jianye 2-1 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.54 xG and Henan Jianye 0.80 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 1.01 / defence 0.72 against Henan Jianye attack 0.97 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 55% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 20%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 33%, Henan Jianye 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Zhixing 1.20 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Zhixing win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.