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Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun at 73% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to face Yunnan Yukun in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Yunnan Yukun's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Tianjin Teda (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Tianjin Teda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Yunnan Yukun winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 11W 9D 10L from their 30 Super League appearances this term. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 30 games (17%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Tianjin Teda's full-season record stands at 12W 8D 10L from 30 games. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.

Tianjin Teda lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 7). Penalty activity: Yunnan Yukun 4/4 vs Tianjin Teda 4/4 this season.

Trading Data

Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Tianjin Teda 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Tianjin Teda 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.31 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.291 / defence 0.892 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.727 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.139. Yunnan Yukun carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Yunnan Yukun games / 35 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 73% | Draw 17% | Tianjin Teda 10%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Tianjin Teda 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 73% — clear model lean.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Tianjin Teda 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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