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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026, 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Qingdao Jonoon are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 3, Sichuan Jiuniu 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Qingdao Jonoon show 6W 3D 8L from 17 outings in Super League. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 17 games (29%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

The visitors have accumulated 6W 2D 10L from their 18 Super League appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-2 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 18 games (22%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.

Sichuan Jiuniu lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 2). Penalty activity: Qingdao Jonoon 1/1 vs Sichuan Jiuniu 2/2 this season.

Table Context

The standings have Sichuan Jiuniu (9th, 20 pts) 5 places above Qingdao Jonoon (14th, 14 pts) — a 6-point gap in Super League.

At home this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 2L. Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 1D 6L on their travels.

In-Play Data

Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 57% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 49% | Sichuan Jiuniu 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 2.08 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.091 / defence 0.933 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.707 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Qingdao Jonoon games / 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 65% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 15%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Jonoon (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.

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