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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long encounter.

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Analysis

Chongqing Tongliang Long make the trip to to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Form

Beijing Guoan (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Chongqing Tongliang Long's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long have posted 3W 3D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Beijing Guoan's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Chongqing Tongliang Long's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 7W 5D 5L from their 17 Super League appearances this term. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 17 games (24%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

Chongqing Tongliang Long's full-season record stands at 7W 7D 4L from 18 games. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.1 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 18 games (6%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.

Beijing Guoan have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 1.70 per game versus 1.20 for the visitors. Chongqing Tongliang Long lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 6). Beijing Guoan score 2+ goals far more often (24% vs 6%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Beijing Guoan 3/4 vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 0/1 this season.

Current Standings

In the Super League table, Chongqing Tongliang Long sit 2nd on 28 points, 5 places and 7 points ahead of Beijing Guoan in 7th.

At home this season, Beijing Guoan have gone 4W 2D 3L. On the road, Chongqing Tongliang Long's record stands at 3W 3D 3L this term. Chongqing Tongliang Long: Promotion - AFC Champions League 2.

Trading Data

Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Chongqing Tongliang Long goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 67% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.68 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.073 / defence 0.956 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.787 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Beijing Guoan games / 18 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 53% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 23%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.35. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% BTTS from recent games.

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