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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing encounter.

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Match Analysis

Chengdu Better City host Dalian Zhixing at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 7W 1D 2L at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Zhixing have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Dalian Zhixing have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Team Stats

Dalian Zhixing's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 8W 1D 8L from 17 matches. They average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.

Standings Snapshot

Chengdu Better City hold the table advantage, sitting 1st with 42 points — 2 positions and 17 points clear of Dalian Zhixing in 3rd.

Chengdu Better City's home record this season stands at 7W 1D 1L. On the road, Dalian Zhixing's record stands at 2W 1D 5L this term. Chengdu Better City: Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase).

In-Play Profile

Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 62% versus Dalian Zhixing 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 57% | Dalian Zhixing 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.03 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.104 / defence 0.699 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.828 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Chengdu Better City games / 47 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 66% | Draw 20% | Dalian Zhixing 14%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Dalian Zhixing 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Chengdu Better City 50% | Dalian Zhixing 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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