Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Sichuan Jiuniu welcome Shanghai Shenhua to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record at : 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shanghai Shenhua are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Shanghai Shenhua and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 56% and Shanghai Shenhua 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 62% | Shanghai Shenhua 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.77 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.955 / defence 0.914 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.238 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 55 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 42% | Draw 23% | Shanghai Shenhua 35%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shanghai Shenhua (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 42% | Draw 23% | Shanghai Shenhua 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.77 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.955 / def 0.914 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.238 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Shanghai Shenhua xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 42% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (5 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 2W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 2W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (0.95) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
42%
2.38
23%
4.29
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.35
1.59
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.65
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.59 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Sichuan Jiuniu have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 16W 6D 33L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 30W 12D 13L from 55 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (12W 4D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Sichuan Jiuniu are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 14W 6D 7L from 27 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 2.11 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua in 67%.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 16W 6D 33L in their last 55 games (0.98 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 30W 12D 13L in their last 55 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.48 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 67%, Shanghai Shenhua 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sichuan Jiuniu) and 59% (Shanghai Shenhua). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 63% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 59% of Shanghai Shenhua's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.