Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Sichuan Jiuniu welcome Shanghai Shenhua to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record at : 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Shanghai Shenhua and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Sichuan Jiuniu show 6W 2D 10L from 18 outings in Super League. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-2 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 18 games (22%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.
Shanghai Shenhua's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 8W 5D 4L from 17 matches. They average 2.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 5-3 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 17 games (35%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Shanghai Shenhua have been the more prolific side this season at 2.10 goals per game compared to 1.40 for the hosts. Penalty activity: Sichuan Jiuniu 2/2 vs Shanghai Shenhua 5/5 this season.
Table Context
The standings have Sichuan Jiuniu (9th, 20 pts) 1 place above Shanghai Shenhua (10th, 19 pts) — a 1-point gap in Super League.
At home this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 5W 1D 4L. Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 3D 2L on their travels.
Trading Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% and Shanghai Shenhua 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 64% | Shanghai Shenhua 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.74 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.099 / defence 1.055 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.265 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 47 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 37% | Draw 22% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Shanghai Shenhua 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Manager edge: Sichuan Jiuniu led by C. Lattanzio • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 2W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 2W • Goals trend: 2.17 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 7 – 6 Shanghai Shenhua • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Sichuan Jiuniu 33% / Draw 33% / Shanghai Shenhua 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 37% / draw 22% / away 40% • Goals: H2H average 2.17/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.56 (69% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 69% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W • Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W • Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Shanghai Shenhua away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG vs Shanghai Shenhua 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Sichuan Jiuniu): Poisson projects 1.74 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Shanghai Shenhua): Poisson xG of 1.82 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.7 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.56 (69% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Sichuan Jiuniu 6/10, Shanghai Shenhua 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 69% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 37% | Draw 22% | Shanghai Shenhua 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.74 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.099 / def 1.055 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.265 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Shanghai Shenhua xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 37% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua?
• Record (6 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 2W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 2W • Goals trend: 2.17 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 7 – 6 Shanghai Shenhua • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Sichuan Jiuniu 33% / Draw 33% / Shanghai Shenhua 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 37% / draw 22% / away 40% • Goals: H2H average 2.17/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.56 (69% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 69% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua in?
• Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W • Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W • Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Shanghai Shenhua away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG vs Shanghai Shenhua 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Sichuan Jiuniu): Poisson projects 1.74 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Shanghai Shenhua): Poisson xG of 1.82 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.7 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.56 (69% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Sichuan Jiuniu 6/10, Shanghai Shenhua 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 69% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture