Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Sichuan Jiuniu welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Shenzhen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record at Shenzhen Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Shenzhen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shanghai Shenhua are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 2 for Shanghai Shenhua and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 59% and Shanghai Shenhua 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 62% | Shanghai Shenhua 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.70 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.965 / defence 0.982 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.357 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.404. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 58 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 35% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 42%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Shanghai Shenhua 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 35% | Draw 24% | Shanghai Shenhua 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.70 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.965 / def 0.982 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.357 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Shanghai Shenhua xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Shenzhen Stadium.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 35% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (5 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 2W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 2W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (0.96) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
35%
2.88
24%
4.24
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.57
1.87
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
15%
6.49
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
5%
18.70
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.87 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Sichuan Jiuniu have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 16W 8D 34L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 33W 12D 13L from 58 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1.41 PPG from 29 outings (12W 5D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Sichuan Jiuniu are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 16W 6D 7L from 29 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 2.22 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua in 69%.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 16W 8D 34L in their last 58 games (0.97 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 33W 12D 13L in their last 58 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.41 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sichuan Jiuniu at 69%, Shanghai Shenhua at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 62% for Shanghai Shenhua. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 66% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 62% of Shanghai Shenhua's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.