Beijing Guoan 2-4 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Tianjin Teda travel to Beijing Workers' Stadium to take on Beijing Guoan in Super League (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beijing Guoan stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beijing Guoan's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Tianjin Teda have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beijing Guoan 1.50 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Beijing Guoan's games and 60% of Tianjin Teda's (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Beijing Guoan hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Tianjin Teda and 4 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2025, ended Beijing Guoan 2–2 Tianjin Teda — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Beijing Guoan an edge — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 65% and Tianjin Teda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 67% | Tianjin Teda 58%). Note also that Tianjin Teda surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Beijing Guoan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.44 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.002 / defence 1.090 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.982 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.095. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 37 games and Tianjin Teda's last 37.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 31%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.32 | Draw 3.84 | Tianjin Teda 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Beijing Guoan 4 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 80% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 8 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.44 / Tianjin Teda 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.002 / def 1.090 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.982 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Tianjin Teda xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 4 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 8) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 43% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.00) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 37 games and Tianjin Teda's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.84
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.61
1.17
Tianjin Teda xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.17 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 33W 14D 13L from 60 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 22L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 20W 5D 5L from their last 30 home games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 9W 5D 16L across their last 30 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.17 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 5, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Tianjin Teda 2-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 70%, Tianjin Teda at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Beijing Guoan and 70% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Beijing Guoan's games and 70% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 70% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 93% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Beijing Guoan 2-4 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.44 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.17 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 43% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 31%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 67%, Tianjin Teda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Tianjin Teda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.