Juventude 0-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Thursday 17 June 2021, 01:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 0.84 xG and Palmeiras 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.819 / defence 1.410 | Palmeiras attack 0.732 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 0.912 / away 1.041. Data: 3 Juventude games / 3 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 28% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 40%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Palmeiras 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Jun 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 28% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Juventude 0.84 / Palmeiras 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.819 / def 1.410 | Palmeiras attack 0.732 / def 1.129 | league avg home 0.912 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Palmeiras xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Palmeiras kick off?
Juventude vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 17 June 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Juventude 0 - 3 Palmeiras.
Where is Juventude vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Palmeiras part of?
Juventude vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 28% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Juventude and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Palmeiras in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juventude's attack at 0.82x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
28%
3.55
31%
3.19
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.92
1.07
Palmeiras xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.67
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 15.8 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Juventude and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Juventude and 1.07 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and Palmeiras runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jun 2021, when Palmeiras won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Juventude
1
Draws
7
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Palmeiras?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Palmeiras have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Juventude 0-3 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.84 xG and Palmeiras 1.07 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Juventude fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Palmeiras outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.82 / defence 1.41 against Palmeiras attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 28% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 40%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.