Santos 0-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juventude make the trip to Estádio Urbano Caldeira to face Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.70 xG and Juventude 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.202 / defence 1.125 | Juventude attack 0.948 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.218. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Santos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Santos games / 2 Juventude games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Santos 47% | Draw 24% | Juventude 29%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Juventude 3.45. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santos are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 47% | Draw 24% | Juventude 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Santos 1.70 / Juventude 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.202 / def 1.125 | Juventude attack 0.948 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Santos (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Juventude xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Juventude kick off?
Santos vs Juventude kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 12 June 2021 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Juventude?
Santos 0 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Santos vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Juventude part of?
Santos vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 47% chance of winning, Juventude a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Santos and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Juventude?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santos and Juventude in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Santos's attack at 1.20x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.95x) against Santos's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.21
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Santos xG
Total xG
3.00
1.30
Juventude xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Santos and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Santos and 1.30 for Juventude, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Pre-Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Santos have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventude won 3-0 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Santos
1
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Santos have won 4, Juventude have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2025, when Juventude 0-3 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Juventude?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Santos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos and Juventude finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.70 xG and Juventude 1.30 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Santos fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Juventude landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Juventude attack 0.95 / defence 1.24, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Santos 47% | Draw 24% | Juventude 29%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.