Fluminense 1-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santos make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Thursday 17 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.20 xG and Santos 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.981 / defence 1.030 | Santos attack 0.718 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 0.851 / away 1.087. Santos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Fluminense games / 3 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 45% | Draw 30% | Santos 25%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Santos 4.00. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 45% | Draw 30% | Santos 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Fluminense 1.20 / Santos 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.981 / def 1.030 | Santos attack 0.718 / def 1.442 | league avg home 0.851 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Santos xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Santos kick off?
Fluminense vs Santos kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 17 June 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Santos?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Santos.
Where is Fluminense vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Santos part of?
Fluminense vs Santos is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 45% chance of winning, Santos a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fluminense and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Santos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Santos in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (0.98) and Santos's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (0.72x) against Fluminense's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.34
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.01
0.80
Santos xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.80 for Santos, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Pre-Season
Santos
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 0-3 on 29 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Fluminense
3
Draws
1
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Santos?
From 9 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 5, Santos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Santos 2-3 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Santos?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Santos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Santos 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.20 xG and Santos 0.80 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santos landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Santos attack 0.72 / defence 1.44, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 45% | Draw 30% | Santos 25%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.