Palmeiras 1-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palmeiras and Corinthians meet at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.36 xG and Corinthians 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.203 / defence 1.125 | Corinthians attack 0.825 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.218. Data: 2 Palmeiras games / 2 Corinthians games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 42% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 31%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Corinthians 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 42% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Palmeiras 1.36 / Corinthians 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.203 / def 1.125 | Corinthians attack 0.825 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Corinthians xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Corinthians kick off?
Palmeiras vs Corinthians kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 12 June 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Palmeiras 1 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Palmeiras vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Corinthians part of?
Palmeiras vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 42% chance of winning, Corinthians a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Palmeiras and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Corinthians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and Corinthians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.82x) against Palmeiras's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.72
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.49
1.13
Corinthians xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.13 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
Corinthians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
3
Draws
2
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Corinthians?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Corinthians have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Corinthians 0-0 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Corinthians?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Palmeiras and Corinthians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 3, as Palmeiras and Corinthians drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.36 xG and Corinthians 1.13 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Corinthians attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 42% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 31%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.